US FCC Robot Rules Hit Humanoid Robots Hardest as Sales Shift to Europe

The new robot regulations from the U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) have resulted in the protected objects becoming those most heavily injured. According to IDC's trade policy model calculations, by 2030, U.S. humanoid robot revenue will be 58% lower than the baseline before the restrictions. Meanwhile, the household cleaning robots, which everyone generally thought would be most impacted, only dropped by 18%. The rules are the same for all categories, but the results of implementation are far apart. The volume that cannot enter the U.S. market naturally flows to other regions, with Europe being the first to be hit.

Regarding the preliminary interpretation of this rule, we have already conducted an analysis in one article.

Why did 2026 become the year for robots to enter the demonstration stage?

Shipments, capital, and buyer willingness—three forces are moving simultaneously. In the first half of 2026, humanoid robot shipments reached approximately 25,000 units, already exceeding the total volume of approximately 18,500 units for the full year of 2025. IDC predicts that by 2030, humanoid robot shipments will exceed 750,000 units, and IDC has adjusted this forecast upward by about 50%. Demand side is also exerting force in the same direction: IDC's 2026 AI platform survey shows that physical AI ranks second in AI investment priorities for the next two years, second only to generative AI assistants. But there is a prerequisite—most companies testing embodied intelligence are still at the proof-of-concept stage, so a single rule is enough to cause a turning point in the growth curve of this young market.

Three types of robots, three types of paces

Humanoid robots: in the early stages, but evolving rapidly. In 2025, approximately 84% of shipments are used for demonstration and verification, including scientific research, education, entertainment, and government data collection. By the first half of 2026, this proportion drops to approximately 70%, and the share of actual operations nearly doubles, reaching approximately 30%.

Mobile robots: the current primary destination of industrial funds. In 2025, approximately 84% of quadruped robot revenue comes from industrial and professional buyers; approximately 30% of organizations prioritize autonomous mobile robots (AMR) in robot investment, while only about 16% prioritize humanoid robots.

Commercial service robots: The most mature category. Shipments of delivery and commercial cleaning robots will increase from approximately 155,000 units in 2025 to approximately 454,000 units in 2030; among them, shipments of cleaning robots are expected to exceed delivery robots in 2028.

Made in China, bought by the world

In the first half of 2026, Chinese manufacturers accounted for approximately 95% of global humanoid robot shipments, and Chinese brands are also in a leading position in the household cleaning robot market in most regions. From the purchasing end, the IDC model shows that China accounts for approximately 21% of consumption, and the United States accounts for approximately 18%. The remaining 61% are located in other parts of the world, while the purchase volume in Europe alone is more than twice the U.S. share. Trade policies act on the purchase map, while the manufacturing map determines who can handle it.

What exactly did this FCC rule block?

On July 28, 2026, the FCC will include advanced robot equipment manufactured in foreign countries on the “Covered List,” and new foreign models will no longer be able to obtain the equipment authorization required for import, marketing, and sale in the United States. The scope applies to: mobile robots capable of sensing the environment, moving on the ground, wirelessly connecting, and weighing more than 4.4 pounds—humanoid robots, quadruped robots, floor-cleaning robots, and lawn-mowing robots are all included.

The following three regulations narrow its scope of application:

• Certified models can continue to ship new machines, and software and firmware updates are exempted at least until January 1, 2029.

• Fixed industrial robotic arms, vehicles, underwater robots, medical and assistive devices are not within the scope, and federal government procurement is also unaffected.

• Conditional approval channel: As long as suppliers move production to the United States, new models can still continue to be sold. The application deadline is January 1, 2028.

Many reports call it a “ban,” but in reality, it is a checkpoint, not a wall. Products on the shelves will not be removed, but every new foreign model must obtain an authorization, and this authorization can no longer be obtained.

Why are humanoid robots most affected?

Home cleaning robots have a large number of certified models, and can be supported until 2027 by relying on minor revisions. American buyers' willingness to pursue new functions is also not as high as European and Chinese buyers. According to IDC model calculations, US home cleaning robots will be 4% lower than the baseline in 2027 and 18% lower in 2030; as the elongated product cycles are exhausted, the gap will further widen.

The model change speed of humanoid robots is higher than any other category, and there are almost no certified models as a buffer. The gap will reach 41% in 2027 and 58% in 2030—in other words, in the projected humanoid robot revenue in the US in 2030, nearly three dollars out of every five dollars will disappear. The size of the risk depends more on the product replacement cycle and the installed base, rather than the country where the factory is located.

This rule constrains the country of origin of the finished robots, but has no binding force on their internal components. US manufacturers such as Figure and Apptronik rely on China for motors, actuators, batteries, and rare earths, and they will not be able to achieve large-scale production until the end of 2028, and domestic capacity simply cannot fill the gap. IDC supply chain research believes that nearshoring outsourcing will still be concentrated at the final assembly stage, therefore if the risk framework stops at final assembly, the component level will never be seen.

Where did the sales flow?

The IDC model shows that US robot revenue will lose more than 6000000000 USD from 2026 to 2030, of which the year 2030 alone exceeds 2000000000 USD. By 2030, the annual growth rate of these categories in the US will drop from about 13% to about 9%.

Chinese manufacturers are turning to markets that remain open, with the largest shares obtained in the UK, France, Germany, and Eastern Europe. Europe was already the largest buyer and has not introduced any regulations, so the pie is actually larger.

Suppliers are hedging their bets because the profit margins on consumer robots are too thin to migrate an entire production line. Their approach is: extend the life of already certified models, move sensitive components into a trusted supply chain, and pair hardware with American software partners—the cooperation model between Tennant and Brain Corp's BrainOS can be referenced.

What should you do depends on which layer of the value chain you are in?

• Robot manufacturers: Treat certification as a roadmap decision, break down the bill of materials by country, down to magnets and reducers. Sell outcomes as Robot as a Service (RaaS). If positioning in Europe, budget for local services and the AI Act compliance must be reserved in advance.

• Platform and chip enterprises: Trusted chips from allies are a selling point in themselves.

• Component manufacturers: You are currently at a choke point. Suppliers that obtain certification from American humanoid robot manufacturers within the next 12 to 18 months will be difficult to replace thereafter.

• Enterprise buyers: Certified fleets continue to ship normally and receive ongoing support, and no need to freeze procurement. However, the continuation plans for parts and services must be confirmed with each supplier; humanoid robot solutions should be fully compared against AMRs and fixed robotic arms based on total cost of ownership.

• Investors: Policy risks must be priced differentially by category—the 58% U.S. gap for humanoid robots and the 18% gap for household cleaning robots are two entirely different sets of risks.

A question can be raised at the next board meeting: If the rules were expanded to parts or fixed industrial robotic arms tomorrow, which link in our plan would become unsustainable?

What should be focused on in the next 12 to 18 months?

IDC believes that five signals should be focused on. First is the early decisions on conditional approvals, which can show the degree of looseness of the channel. Second is the spread of rules—the pressure to extend restrictions to components or fixed mechanical arms, which, once realized, will impact component manufacturers and industrial automation. Third is that the buffer for certified models in 2027 will thin out. Fourth is the application deadline on January 1, 2028, at which time a wave of applications and related news regarding US assembly should appear. Fifth is that Europe's high-risk AI obligations will be implemented in phases between December 2027 and August 2028, and how Europe handles this will determine where sales land next. Finally, US humanoid robot manufacturers are expected to reach large-scale production by the end of 2028, at which time the domestic gap may begin to narrow. This rule changes the route, not the destination. Return to the previous page for more information